Donald Trump and the MAGA gang point to the ‘massive mandate’ he obtained to justify any policy he may implement.

There is, of course, a lot of debate about so-called mandates which seem to be less about some enduring principle and more about a flexible justification for what you want to do.

But looking at the election result Trump did win a landslide in the Electoral College but in terms of the popular vote (which doesn’t count of course in the US system) it was very narrow one.

The Economist recently interrogated YouGov data to ascertain how Trump has been tracking. The top line result from January 20, soon after the election and Inauguration, was well within margins of error but opinion about Trump was neatly divided with 48% favourable and 49% unfavourable. Three percent didn’t know.

There also weren’t outpourings of interest in the Inauguration either. The Inauguration (coronation perhaps?) attracted 24.6 million viewers, a drop of nine million, or 27%, from the 33.8 million people who watched Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration and a six million, or 21%, drop from the 31 million, who tuned in to coverage of Trump’s first inauguration in 2017.

But probably what is most interesting in the YouGov data is the demographic breakdown of attitudes. The pollsters categorise net favourability as ‘very favourable’, ‘somewhat favourable’, ‘somewhat unfavourable’ and very ‘unfavourable’.

In terms of favourability in the context of gender (which the US is now not allowed to talk about of course) males have strong net favourability for Trump. Females are strongly unfavourable. He was also favoured by those with a high school education or some college education while college graduates were slightly more unfavourable than favourable. Post grads scored minus 40% in terms of unfavorability of Trump. The highly educated seem to be in much doubt about his self-appointed genius status.

Race is still a strong predictor of favourability in the US with White respondents more favourable to Trump lagged by (in ascending order of unfavorability Hispanic (confirming harder actual election data about Hispanic support for Trump); other minus 20 percent net favourability; and Black minus 40%.

Age is also an important factor. Ironically, (given how attitudes of the young and older often reflect progressive or conservative views) young people aged under 30 and 30-44 were more favourable whereas the 45 to 64 year olds were unfavourable and the 65 plus were even more unfavourable.

Since winning the election Trump’s net favourability has increased although it is not yet in positive territory as more Americans have an unfavourable opinion of him than a favourable one.

The research also covered attitudes on issues. The most important issue facing America was seen by 24% as inflation and prices. 29% of Republicans rated this issue as the most important issue compared with 16% of Democrats. Health care was the second most important issue with a split of 20% of Democrats rating it, 5% of Republicans and 14% of all respondents.

The third rated issue was jobs and the economy with roughly similar attitudes of Republicans and Democrats followed by immigration with a big gap between attitudes of Republicans and Democrats – Republicans being ten times more concerned about it than Democrats – although only one in 10 of respondents rated it as an important issue.

Climate change and the environment was rated the fifth most important issue facing America, but Democrats were six times more likely than Republicans to rate it as an important issue. When it comes to taxes and government spending Republicans are more than three times more likely than Democrats to rate it as important.

Abortion – a key US battleground is ranked ninth in significance with Democrats more likely to rate than issue than Republicans. Abortion is followed by education and civil liberties is 10^th. Only three percent overall rate it as the most important issue but Democrats are five times more likely to nominate it than Republicans.

The research also looked at what were deemed to be the most important issues over the period 2017 to 2025. The result – the economy was top of mind with throughout the period although briefly back in 2017 immigration matched its rating. By 2025 health care, immigration, civil rights and national security major issues were all rated lowly.

The US has embarked on a wild ride. It will take years to undo the damage Trump will inflict on the country and the world. Whether he lasts as President – given his age, diet and cognitive decline – is a moot point. But celebration is premature when you remember that if he does die, or become incapacitated, Vance will become President.

Woodrow Wilson became incapable of functioning as President, but his wife and staff successfully covered it up. If it happens to Trump it would be impossible to pull off the same conspiracy.