It is sometimes difficult to believe that the US is not headed irretrievably towards a new civil war. But a host of recent research suggests that among the massive problems and sheer insanity of many of its citizens – let alone that of one of the Presidential candidates – the situation is much more complex.

Clearly confidence in US national institutions is falling. In 2006 when Gallup first started measuring how much G7 nations trusted key institutions the US topped rankings. By last year the US was last with Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Japan and even Italy ahead of it.

Perhaps the most bizarre finding about what US citizens think is a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll from January this year which found that a quarter of Americans believed the conspiracy theory that FBI operatives organised and encouraged the January 6 Capitol attack.

Back in the days of J. Edgar Hoover he daily conspired against US citizens if they were progressives or African American. They ran campaigns trying to persuade Martin Luther King to commit suicide but even he drew the line at armed attacks on Congress – after all he preferred blackmail when it came to bringing Congress members into line.

25% of the sample said it was definitely or probably true that the FBI was behind the attack with 34% of Republicans, 30% of Independents, 13% Democrats, 44% of Trump voters and 10% of Biden voters agreeing. About half of US adults in the sample said it was probably/definitely false compared with 21% of Trump voters.

11% believed there was solid evidence of FBI organisation with a further 13% thinking it was suspicious. Slightly less than half were confident that the FBI didn’t organise it but 26% weren’t sure.

One of the most striking examples of erosion in belief in public institutions is the attitude to the Supreme Court. In 2020 the annual Marquette Law School poll 66% of respondents approved of the way the Court was doing its job and 33% disapproved.  By this year the approval rate was 40% and the disapproval rate was 66%.

There is also a marked partisan difference – one which is getting wider. In 2020 total approval was 60% (not great by any means) with 78% of Republican’s approving compared with 50% of Independents and 60% of Democrats. Four years later total approval was down to 40% and with Republicans it was 43% and the disapproval rate for Democrats was 73% followed by Independents at 72%.

Quite obviously the overturning of Roe v Wade was unpopular with 67% opposing the decision which has driven significant mobilisation among women which will certainly benefit Kamala Harris.

People, from previous surveys, apparently didn’t pay much attention to the Supreme Court but in 2024 they started to take more. For instance, 91% took the view that the Court should uphold a federal law that prohibits people under domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. The remaining 9% thought it should be held to be unconstitutional.

Not surprisingly Americans believe major political donors, lobbyists and special interests have too much influence on politics. A 2023 Pew Research Center reported provides some insights into the validity of these beliefs. 70% of the sample believed they had too little influence on members of Congress compared with 80% of lobbyists and donors having too much.

Perhaps surprisingly in a deeply divided country both Democrats and Republicans in the Pew study overwhelmingly think there should be limits on the amount of money individuals and organisations can spend. Both equally supports limits on the role of money in politics. Sadly, the Supreme Court obviously doesn’t agree given their decision to treat corporations as individuals expressing their free speech rights in donating millions to candidates.

In this current US campaign political staff should note the Pew finding that 60% of responding think attending a rally is not at all likely to change the country for the better. Democrats are more likely to think voting can produce positive change. Republicans not so much, but then their party specialises in denying the vote to as many people as they can.

There is some hope in a large 2024 study (based on a 45,000 sample) of attitudes to partisan violence published in the PNAS earlier this year. The authors came from Stanford, Annenberg, Pennsylvania University and Dartmouth College.

They set out to see whether fundamental democratic norms have come under threat from prominent Republican officials. They don’t name them but we – and many respondents – could make an educated guess as to who they were talking about.

The study introduction argues that democratic regimes flourish only when there is broad acceptance of an extensive set of norms and values and asks whether “the anti-democratic posture has spread from the elite level to rank and file partisans.”

They conclude that ‘the overwhelming majorities of the public oppose violations of democratic norms and virtually nobody supports partisan violence.”

However, “Overall, these results suggest that the clear and present threat to American democracy comes from unliteral actions by political elites that stand in contrast to the views of their constituent ….we consider the implications of the stark disconnect between the behaviour of Republican elites and the attitudes of Republican voters.”

That, of course, doesn’t mean there is no risk of repeats of January 6 – even perhaps on an even bigger scale. And it also relies on what a lot of others – from the National Guard to members of Congress, the media and the Supreme Court – might do. And it’s probably unwise to think that even a landslide win by Harris would remove any threat.

In the meantime – just in case – find the recent Kirsten Dunst film, Civil War, to see what could happen.