Machado trumps Trump in the polling stakes

Donald Trump may be revelling in his ‘victory’ in Venezuela but the American public, according to the latest polls, were and are strongly opposed to his war. When pollsters specified the goal of military action (removing Maduro), the numbers barely improved.

The opposition is not new. Data for Progress found back in December that 60% of likely voters opposed “sending American troops into Venezuela to remove President Maduro from power” versus 33% in favour. September YouGov polling on using military force “to overthrow Maduro” found 53% opposed and just 18% in favour. Independents strongly or somewhat opposed and 64% of Republicans were either not sure or opposed.

As for strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats 42% were in favour compared with 53% opposed. Ipsos which asked the question in a more subtle form looking at support or opposition for actions “without judicial authorisation” only 29% of Americans supported killing drug traffickers.

75% of Americans – including 58% of Republicans – believe a president must get congressional approval before taking military action in Venezuela.

Americans have had too many bitter experiences of their politicians intervening in other countries – from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan. They have devastated the countries they invaded and damaged the US. The only one of the wars they won was the defeat of a few Cuban engineers at an airfield in Grenada in 1983.

Now it’s all actually happened in Venezuela there is no rallying around the flag but rather anger and frustration. G. Eliott Morris’ Strength in Numbers analysis found that military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts.

A CBS News You-Gov poll taken in late November highlighted the potential problems with Trump’s plans. Only 24% of respondents believe Trump had clearly explained the US position on military action in Venezuela and 76% thought he hadn’t done that. The survey also strongly suggested that Trump should be explaining his decision – 97% of Democrats, 86% of Independents and 64% of Republicans. Result for doesn’t need to explain was supported by 3% of Democrats, 14% of Independents and 36% of Republicans.

Americans also didn’t see Venezuela as a threat to US security – 14% saying it was major threat, 48% a minor threat and 39% not a threat at all., 70% opposed the US taking military action and only 30% favoured it.

They also had a more robust attitude to evidence of a threat than Trump has. 75% said the US needed to show evidence that boats it attacks carry drugs and 56% believe US military action would not change the amount of drugs entering the US.

Before coming to power Trump seemed to understand that the US had been in too many wars and promised a new approach. Instead, he quickly adopted the traditional US policy on people, countries and activities they disapprove of – invade and kill.

An interesting sidelight to it all is Trump’s reaction to a very pointed query from a reporter about Venezuela.

When the reporter asked Trump during the Mar-a-Lago press event whether he’d spoken to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado following Maduro’s arrest, Trump said Machado “doesn’t have the support or the respect within the country.”

Machado, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize for her fight for democracy in Venezuela. Trump yearns for a Nobel Prize of his own and it must have been galling to be asked about Machado who has a 72% approval rating from Venezuelans according to a March poll by ClearPath Strategies.

Trump could only dream of that sort of poll support in the US – let alone in Venezuela.

 


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