One of the problems of predictions and probabilities is that the former tend to be wrong (particularly when made by the famous) and the latter are only probable, not certain and highly susceptible to random events.

The blog was reminded of both realities by some new research on predictions by government analysts and recent Victorian political events which could shift the probabilities of a change of government in the State. The reality about predictive failures were exposed by the 2005 release of a 20 year study by Philip Tetlock (see blogs passim) which showed that the performance of experts making predictions was not much better than chance and that the more famous a pundit the more likely they were to be off the money. read more

One of the curious things about risk is the fact that it is much harder to get people worried about real risks than it is to get them to stop worrying about something which is not really a major concern.

That thought came originally from Peter Sandman, the risk expert the blog referred to a while ago in discussing the paradoxical case of the local gasworks park where the populace was saying it was safe and the official body, the Council, was saying it was not because of contamination from decades ago. read more

Are people sick of politics, sick of the way it is practised, sick of the way it is reported in the media or some combination of all of the above? For the blog it’s mainly media coverage and the obsessive and largely irrelevant speculation and prediction which accompanies it. Indeed, about the only reason for reading most political reportage is to identify who inspired it, why, and whether as a result it is likely to be wrong or right. read more

The distinguished historian, John Poynter, has added another piece to the jigsaw which is Australian PR history with his new biography of L.L. Smith.

The book, The Audacious Adventures of Dr Louis Lawrence Smith, is another example of how mainstream historians are including depictions of how people, regimes, organisations and power are represented through strategies and tactics which Dr Tom Watson has dubbed proto-PR. The Poynter biography is of a remarkable Victorian who was, as Poynter says, “a doctor, an art collector, politician, writer, publisher, speculator, vigneron, farmer, breeder and rider of racehorses, and finally, guiding hand got thirty years of Melbourne’s great exhibition complex.” He was also a gifted publicist whose often brilliant promotions marked every stage of his career. read more

Risk communication may well be the hardest thing most PR practitioners will ever need to do. The complexities of innumeracy, emotion, confusion and deliberate distortion which bedevil most risk communication problems present massive problems for practitioners.

Recently the blog has seen just how difficult it can be, and just how perceptions can change according to the standpoint of the protagonists, sometimes in the most paradoxical ways. The blog’s local council is proposing to remediate a local park and arts centre by removing the park soil and trees; removing underlying  contaminants; putting in a new layer of soil; and, replanting the garden. The park and arts centre were once the site of a Victorian Gas & Fuel operation which was closed with the advent of natural gas and rationalisation of operations and converted into a park. The historic buildings on the site are now a flourishing arts complex which the blog supports. read more

One of the paradoxes of the communications business is that when you are working within organisations everyone has an opinion on what the communication problems are, how they should be fixed and how if they are fixed all the other problems will go away. Yet when it comes to observing politics the blog has found people are far less certain – although politicians themselves do tend to blame communications rather than policy or anything else if they are travelling badly in the polls. read more

There are probably no other politicians of any era as unalike as the 18^th century British Parliamentarian, John Wilkes, and the Victorian MP Geoff Shaw.

One was one his era’s most famous libertines, a member of the notorious Hellfire Club, a notable wit and inveterate gambler, a pioneer of the reporting of Parliament through the North Briton  and an opponent of autocratic government. The other – well he’s Geoff Shaw MLA. But despite the differences there is a similarity – their situation and the question as to whether parliaments should expel MPs because they disapprove of them. Obviously if the Constitution provides for certain disqualifications such as bankruptcy, accepting an office of profit from the State, criminal offences and so on then breaching those can lead to expulsion. In the recent scandals about British MPs rorting their allowances some repaid them and stayed on; some were found guilty of crimes went to gaol and out of Parliament; and some were voted out at the next election. But none of them were voted out just because a majority in the Parliament thought they should go. read more

While it is easy to focus on the mythical nonsense about Anzac traditions and politicians’ exploitation of the myths, there is a far more worrying  aspect of the myth-making – the extent to which it distorts debate about military readiness, war and what strategies and training Australia and its military should pursue. read more

The blog was, some years ago, in one of a number of small groups being consulted by the State Library of Victoria about its future directions and corporate planning. The consultants running the session trotted out all the usual gobbledygook and managerial newspeak which you expect on these occasions. read more

Tabloid media, nowadays a term which conveniently describes an approach to news rather than just a newspaper format, has much to answer for in terms of pain, suffering and distortion.

Much of its deleterious impact is on politics and the most vulnerable or most gullible sections of society.  Even more seriously, for example, the enthusiasm with which news media absorbed and amplified the lies and distortions in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq may not have been responsible for the thousands of deaths which occurred but it helped create the climate which made it possible. read more