Supremes not as popular as the musical version

US attitudes to the Supreme Court are at an all-time 39 year low according to recent research by the Pew Research Centre.  The Court’s favourable rating is now 22% lower than it was in 2020 when 70% of Americans had a positive view.

Just 26% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents view the Court favourably – the lowest rating from either party in the more than 30 years the question has been asked.

The fall seems to have started in 2021 – before the Court’s decision overturning the federal right to abortion – when two thirds of Democrats approved of the Court.  In contrast Republicans and GOP-leaners had a 71% favourable view.

Indeed, Republican views have changed much less than those of Democrats in recent years – presumably because the Court is ticking off Republicans’ wish list items. 69% of Democrats say the Court is doing only a fair or poor job.  47% of Republicans say the Court is doing an only fair of poor job in keeping their political opinions separate. 57% of Democrats see the Court as conservative compared to 28% of Republicans.

However, when Pew looked at gender and age and other differences more divisions appeared.  50% of men and 46% of women view the Court favourably. 63% of Black adults express an unfavourable view of the Court compared with 50% of Hispanics, White 48% and Asian adults 46%. A majority of adults under 50 have an unfavourable view (55%) while adults 50 and over are 54% favourable.

People with a college degree or more education are more likely than those without a degree to view the Court favourably. However, 56% of Democrats with a bachelor or higher degree view the Court negatively. About a third of Democrats without some college or less education view the Court favourably. In what seems a strange result the reverse applies with Republicans.

There are strong feelings about Supreme Court Justice’s keeping their political views out of their decision-making. 14% say the Justices are doing a good job of keeping their personal politics out of their decisions but 56% say they are not doing so. 24% of Republicans say the Justices are doing an excellent or good job keeping their political opinions but 45% say they are doing only a fair or poor job on this measure.

Overall attitudes to the question are clear – 87% of Americans say Justices should not bring their political views into decision-making and equal majorities of both Republicans and Democrats think the Justices should not bring personal politics into decisions.  On this measure the Court is well out of touch with the public.

It is interesting that while controversy surrounds the Supremes the Weekend Financial Times (6-7/12) Influence List of “people who shaped the world in 2025” singled out Alexandre de Moraes – a Brazilian Judge.

Writing about the judge Lilia Moritz Schwartz said” “At a time when many supreme courts have capitulated to the power of autocrats, when democratic institutions have shown weakness in the face of populist and far-right leaders (he) has a become a symbol of democracy and justice in Brazil.”

The judge refused to endorse the attempted January 8 coup d’etat and jailed the former President Jai Bolsonaro. He has confronted attacks on the electoral system and dismantled disinformation networks.

Needless to say Trump wants to nobble de Moraes and is vigorously supporting Bolsonaro. Would the US Supreme Court rule in favour of Trump if he did what Bolsonaro has done? Sounds ridiculous to even consider it. But the Court has ruled that he can’t be held responsible for criminal acts confirming Trump’s claim back in 2016, in the run-up to the Iowa caucuses that his popularity and charm was such that he could murder someone in broad daylight and get away with it.

The Supremes have now officially agreed with that view.

That’s fortunate for Trump because the American public have a more negative view of him and his policies. According to the most recent Gallup polling Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% while his disapproval had surged to 60%. This is the lowest in his second term and is in line with other recent surveys.

Significantly Republican approval of Trump has fallen by 7% – it is still 84% but when a hunk of Republican respondents desert you there is a bit of a problem. What’s worse for Trump is that support from Independent’s has fallen 7 points to 25%.

Trump is also, according to Gallup, now rated more negatively by Independents on foreign and domestics issues – specifically crime, foreign affairs, foreign trade and immigration.   His approval ratings among Independents on the economy, the Middle East, the federal budget, Ukraine and health care are all in the 30s.

The next Trump Supreme Court test is with tariffs. A few of the Supremes seemed a tad sceptical of some of his claims but it would be a foolish person to bet against this being anything other than some serious pondering designed to suggest the issue is being seriously considered.

…and not content with silencing opponents, gerrymandering electorates, destroying historic buildings and systematically enriching the Trump family the administration will be barring entry to the US if you have even a hint of anti-Trump material on your socials.

 


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