This year marks 500 years since the end of the Peasants War in Germany (1524–25).

Inspired by Reformation belief the peasants claimed that divine rights provided them with agrarian rights and freedom from oppression by nobles and landlords. Sadly, the war was lost with some 100,000 peasants slaughtered. Survivors met with reprisals and restrictions and even more oppressive conditions.

Just on 500 years later two academics, Eli G. Rau and Susan Stokes published a PNAS article (30/24) on income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the 21^st century. It has echoes – if with considerably less violence – of those long time ago problems.

The authors write: “Among the most pressing problems societies face today are economic inequality and the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. In fact, the two problems – inequality and democratic erosion – are linked.” They suggest that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of where and when democracy erodes. Indeed, they demonstrate through analysis of a wide variety of countries in the 21st century that democracy is more often threated by elected presidents and prime ministers than military coups. The more unequal income distribution the more risk is of electing a power-grabbing norm-shredding head of government.

Just in case this sentence brings to mind one country and one man the reality is that the problem is far more widespread. Indeed, much of the research was done before he was re-elected .

Nevertheless, the current US day-to-day reality is a powerful confirmation of their findings. Indeed, the Biden years were better than almost every other country in the sample  – other than Brazil and Ukraine. Between Trump and his master, Putin, the likelihood of Ukraine getting a better rating is slim.

The worst offender in terms of democratic erosion was Turkey followed by Venezuela and India. Hungary also performed badly on this measure and the Philippines and Nicaragua were also problematic.

The erosions identified lasted an average of nine years and cover countries which were considered democracies throughout their periods of study (1995-2022). Venezuela is the exception as it began a democracy, eroded and then became as autocracy.

The authors say that US democratic erosion (was it ever a full democracy one must ask?) “came as surprise to many observers as it was always believed that wealthy and old democracies were the most resilient.”

But they say: “in 2016 the country elected a president who routinely attacked the free press, threatened to jail his political opponents, and expressed consistent disdain for democratic norms…and undermined confidence in elections.” What they would think if they were replicating their research today would be most interesting.

“Public perceptions of unfairness in economic distributions and opportunities contribute to cynicism about the broader system, weakening people’s commitment to political norms and institutions,” they say.

To get a sense of the US inequality compared with some other countries the authors looked at Gini coefficients. Sweden has an income spread more compressed than all but 14% of democracies. (Gini 26.4) The US has a Gini (38.4) larger than 60% of democracies. The latest figures for the US are not known yet but they are almost certainly getting worse.

Most importantly the study finds there is a correlation between Gini and GDP per capita, plus the year of observation, to correctly predict erosion and non-erosion of democracy 80% of the time. Their findings also hold when they measure wealth inequality as well as income inequality.

The researchers also look at the impacts of polarisation, democratic backsliding and politicians presenting voters with a choice between safeguarding democracy and avoiding “the presumably dire outcome of the despised opposing party coming to power.”

The age of a democracy is a possible influence, but the authors assume the US is a democracy in the sense we understand it. Systematic voter suppression over the US’ entire history – often violent and murderous – marks it out as less than the rosy image espoused in many political speeches. The authors also look at State capacity as some scholars have suggested that State capacity (enforcing contracts and organising public spending) for instance, need to be considered but the impact this has in either direction is uncertain.

The sample in the research included Turkey, Serbia, Senegal, Poland, Mexico, India, Hungary, Benin, Brazil, Philippines, Zambia, United States, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Botswana, South Africa, Macedonia, Ukraine, Venezuela and Moldova. Amazingly there are only a few in the sample where the US has actively engaged in military interventions – although the CIA has had a finger or more in many of them.

More insights on all this can be gained by looking at Backsliding Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World (19 January 2021 Cambridge), by Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman (available online). To quote the blurb “Assaults on democracy are increasingly coming from the actions of duly elected governments, rather than coups. Backsliding examines the processes through which elected rulers weaken checks on executive power, curtail political and civil liberties, and undermine the integrity of the electoral system. Drawing on detailed case studies, including the United States and countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Africa, the book focuses on three, inter-related causal mechanisms: the pernicious effects of polarization; realignments of party systems that enable elected autocrats to gain legislative power; and the incremental nature of derogations, which divides oppositions and keeps them off balance.”

And as for the peasants …….when they rose 500 years ago were opposed by lords and by Martin Luther who condemned them all. In contrast the revolt was supported by Huldrych Zwingli and Thomas Müntzer.

While Luther preached and ingratiated himself with the local rulers Zwingli threw on his armour and raced out to fight the enemy. He was cut down, his body burnt and ashes spread. All that is left of him is a helmet in a church….which may or not have been his. However, as his most recent biographer, Bruce Gordon writes, his role in founding a church (Presbyterian in various forms) that flourishes from Korea to California to South Africa., lives on.

John Spitzer alerted the author to the PNAS paper.