While there is no doubt that our acquisition of nuclear subs from the US will either be massively delayed and over budget or binned on some Trumpian whim what’s worse is that we may never get our multi-billion dollar deposit back if that occurs.

This is in stark contrast with Canada which is buying subs – albeit not nuclear – which can be delivered by 2035.Timely delivery is important to the Canadians given that Trump continues to threaten Canada with annexation and is bristling at the economic damage Canada is doing to the US through widespread boycotts and other activities ranging from Mark Carney’s rapier to Doug Ford’s elbows up.

There are two contenders for the Canadian contract – a Korean company Hanwha and a German company TKMS .

The TKMS pitch goes “From the earliest days of submarines the goal of our teams at the shipyard in Kiel has been to prolong diving time. Air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems have made this possible for non-nuclear boats. AIP systems significantly increase a submarine’s underwater range and reduce the risk of discovery.

“The AIP system developed and deployed in Kiel, the HDW fuel cell plant, has no moving parts. That makes detection of such a submarine virtually impossible. HDW Class 212, HDW Class 214 and HDW Class Dolphin AIP submarines powered by an HDW fuel cell plant were the first to undertake extremely long dives independent of external air sources. These classes have set new standards in terms of signatures, range, automation, weapons control, external communication, crew comfort, and convenience.”

CBC (that’s the Canadian CBC), reported that “the TKMS pitch also involves a plan to construct a submarine maintenance facility in Canada, creating jobs for Canadians — an important condition the Liberal government has repeatedly underlined.”

The company said that if Canada were to join the program it’s possible the first Canadian boat could arrive in the 2032-33 timeframe. While we know any nuclear subs proposed for Australia will probably not be operational until our great grandchildren’s children have long retired the German and/or Korean offer will also come with the inevitable hitches and problems too – such is the inevitable problems with major defence acquisitions. Indeed, if Australia decided to acquire the old 303 again even that would come in over budget and late.

Hanwha says it can deliver four KSS-III CPS to fully replace Canada’s current Victoria-class fleet before 2035 if on contract in 2026. Canada is expecting its chosen shipbuilder to deliver the first sub by 2035. Hanwha Ocean also estimates that an earlier retirement of Canada’s ageing fleet of subs would result in about $1 billion in savings “on maintenance and support costs.”

Germany’s TKMS said, in its recent presentation to Carney and members of his cabinet in Kiel that it could supply a submarine by 2034 and a second one by 2037. The Korean firm countered this in its statement on Wednesday, saying not only could it deliver the first four before the retirement of the old fleet, but the additional eight could be delivered at a rate of one per year — meaning the entire fleet of 12 subs could be ready by 2043.

Now there is probably nothing Australia can do to get out of the nuclear deal unless the Pentagon decides – which it may well do – that extra subs for Australia is a bridge too far.

There are also the obvious geopolitical consequences.  The US will no doubt put restrictions on what Australia can do with the submarines and, at some point, may well demand assistance in a war against China over Taiwan.

A final incentive for Australia to look at the German and Korean options Canada is considering is that it could come with an agreement to cooperate on rare earth minerals – an obsession with Trump – and an area in which Australia and Canada have significant resources.

One can’t imagine an Albanese Government – or indeed any Australian government abandoning AUKUS. It’s about as likely as the government reforming the tax system to eliminate our multitudinous tax rorts which increase housing prices and disadvantage the young.

But what a great decision it would be.