The new Queensland Premier, David Crisafulli, has made some moderately progressive comments about climate and nuclear energy but they are, when considered in the context of the latest Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index, insignificant compared to the scale of the problems the State faces.

For a start he has ruled out repealing the State’s ban on nuclear power although whether that would be maintained in the face of strong pressure from Peter Dutton is another question. He has also committed to the 2050 emissions target but has not made any commitments on how he would get there nor provided any interim targets.

His problem is highlighted by the Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index. The Zurich Insurance Group is naturally concerned that insurers are on the front line of risks relating to climate change, including natural disasters and extreme weather events. After all it’s about their money and profits not political sloganeering designed to evade real questions about climate change.

“For this reason, just as communities, businesses and policy-makers have increasingly looked to focus on prevention and mitigation, Zurich has sought to complement its traditional protection solutions by providing specialised insights and tools to support the identification, quantification and assessment of risks – including climate risks such as heat, flood and fire – in order to prioritise actions and investments that can materially improve resilience,” the company said in a report on the Index.

For Queensland one of the greatest risks is to the tourist industry and Zurich calculates that in the year ended March 2024 $173 billion was spent on tourism nationally – with 82% of it domestic day and overnight travel.

The report said that “Queensland faced both the highest number of sites facing risk overall (79%) and the most sites in the highest risk category compared with other jurisdictions.” The Queensland share of the tourist market is about $60 billion – a third of the national total.

“In terms of economic impact, similar revenue reductions experienced following the bushfires of 2019/20 could jeopardise 176,00 jobs nationally, 65% of which are outside capital cities.” That’s the very areas which LNP pollies depend on for any majority.

Of course, the risk is not only to sites for tourist visitations – it’s also the associated infrastructure. The report analyses the risk to 178 tourism assets including major airports. The analysis found that half of Australia’s tourism sites and airports are currently in the highest three climate risk categories.

Assuming 2 degrees Celsius warming by 2041-2060 this would increase to 55% of sites by 2050 and 80% of sites would have an increase in risk between 2025 and 2050.

The financial cost can be calculated by a rough comparison with the 2019-20 bushfires and could jeopardise 176,000 jobs nationally – 65% which are outside capital cities. Very bad news for the LNP in Queensland and the National Party throughout the nation.

Given the number of climate denialists in the National Party (think Barnaby Joyce) and the Liberals (exemplified by Tony Abbott) a few of them are going to have quite some explaining to do with their constituents.

As for nuclear power one wonders why Crisafulli ruled it out so quickly? Is he planning to soften his stance on the issue after a Dutton campaign gets underway? Has he had some expert attitudinal research advice which demonstrates the Dutton dream is impractical and not as popular as imagined.

Perhaps he actually believes it’s the right policy – with a just little bit of reinforcement from some market research.

Queensland – with more than 300 days of sunshine a year – is already experiencing remarkable growth in solar energy adoption, with around 17% of all households now equipped with solar panels, totalling more than 1.2 million installations. Why would they want to spend billions on nuclear power when they are in prime position to exploit the power of the Sun?

Presumably Queensland voters (particularly in FNQ) might also start thinking about what cyclone season might mean for nuclear power plants in the construction phase and for later operations. Nothing as serious as Japanese earthquakes obviously but regular inundations would be probable.

 Climate change denialists – or evaders of Australian reality such as Dutton with his nuclear plans –  keep coming up against the hard realities of finance and investment strategies.

Zurich-Mandala demonstrates why.