WTF just happened?
Well, the first obvious thing is that Labor just won a massive record-breaking landslide election. The majority might get trimmed back a bit as further counting occurs but it suggests that a third term is possible.
Second, they had the advantage of running against a Leader, Peter Dutton, who was rated Australia’s most distrusted politician by Roy Morgan Research and against a political party women have been deserting since Morrison days.
Third, the Dutton policy platform was inept with no indication that it had done the policy hard work, and the campaign itself was a shambles.
Fourth, the Labor primary vote was low and the days of two party dominance are over and who reaps which preferences is now vital.
Fifth, the Greens have been obliterated and may end up with no seats at all. This may, at last end, their endless boasts about holding the balance of power.
Sixth, the Teals and Independents are back stronger than ever and we can only hope Labor doesn’t get arrogantly carried away with its dominance, refuse to listen to them and seek cooperation where they can – whether they think they need to or not.
Seventh, the ABC’s Anthony Green almost off-handedly early in the night called the election for Labor setting off joyous scenes in Labor ranks and campaign and a bit of bemusement among the ABC panel. He’d had an IT misfunction but still spotted the reality while others were tutting about this and that.
Eighth, the assumption that early voting would favour the LNP seems to have been wrong and there were indications from early counts that this was not the case.
Nineth, the next generation of potential LNP leaders lost their seats posing a huge problem for anyone trying to rebuild the party.
Tenth, the assumption that State Governments have a big impact on Federal elections is, in this case, just plain wrong. The Allan Government in Victoria is on the nose and motoring along expensive unfinished freeways to defeat. But Labor did extremely well in the State. The LNP win in Queensland against a long-term Queensland Labor Government means nothing in this election as the LNP lost seats like Leichhardt – although retirement of long-time member Warren Entsch may also have had some impact. For years we have been told Leichardt was in play and now it actually was.
Eleventh, ethnic voters – particularly the Chinese seem to have heavily rejected the LNP in seats such as Menzies in Victoria.
But after the LNP, the biggest loser on election night was the ABC commentary panel. There were actually two panels. One – which included two of the best political brains in Australia – Tony Barry and Kos Samaras – was given very little time at all and Barry’s very early predictions about the outcome were skipped over.
In contrast, the ABC team was unnecessarily aggressive, talked over those they were interviewing and even, at one stage, tried so hard to try to shut down replies from Jacinta Price that most of us actually felt sympathetic to her – something few progressives would imagine. Moreover, her comments on Darwin, the Northern Territory and First Nations policy were worth heeding.
It will be interesting to see what the Murdoch media say about the ABC following their example. If Dutton had been destined to stay around instead of going, he might have had much more to say about hate media.
But the biggest question of all is what Labor – set up for a possible six years – might do with the time. Could they be jolted into far-reaching policy action or will they continue to nibble away at the edges of things?
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