Opinion polling may be very useful for making political predictions but there is one thing which is even better – elections – as one recent US one illustrates.
On August 26 an election in Iowa’s 1st Senate district – a seat Trump won by 11% in 2024 – the Democrat candidate Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by a margin of 10% breaking the supermajority that Iowa Republicans had in the state legislature.
While there is no doubt that our acquisition of nuclear subs from the US will either be massively delayed and over budget or binned on some Trumpian whim what’s worse is that we may never get our multi-billion dollar deposit back if that occurs.
This is in stark contrast with Canada which is buying subs – albeit not nuclear – which can be delivered by 2035.Timely delivery is important to the Canadians given that Trump continues to threaten Canada with annexation and is bristling at the economic damage Canada is doing to the US through widespread boycotts and other activities ranging from Mark Carney’s rapier to Doug Ford’s elbows up.
The RSL has been a significant force in Australian politics but it’s clear it is now suffering from a range of problems. Once upon a time it had easy access to government, but the interests of veterans are now far more diverse and complex than in the past. It needs more than a regular visit to have tea with the Minister as was the practice of yore.
Back in 2024 the blog speculated on the many missed opportunities in Australian political history. It asked if only we had done some things and not done some we did.
Reading it almost a year later it still seems relevant. This is what we wrote back then:
Everyone has the odd ‘if only’ thought from time to time.
For some totally incomprehensible reason the Australian Army is axing funding for the Salvation Army’s Red Shield Services Sallyman service.
Everyone is familiar with the Salvos. They might be housing the homeless, providing street people and families in need with food and always being there when everybody else has given up.
It is easy to be overwhelmed by the sheer volume of opinion polling coming out of the US. But then the fact is that it is overwhelmingly negative for Donald Trump and makes for delightful reading.
……and the considerable recent evidence shows just how far underwater he is.
For instance, recent polling in key states – states he won in 2024 – show how disillusioned his voters have become.
The British media has always been populated by larger than life figures – from Northcliffe to Maxwell, Beaverbrook to Harmsworth, Barclay to Lebedev and, of course Rupert Murdoch.
They have used their power to undermine or promote governments; create scare campaigns; and use their power to enrich themselves or others. They have been scandal ridden and the huge phone tapping saga from a decade or so ago, for instance, embroiled many media companies.
In between blogging and other things the blog sometimes writes letters to the editor of various papers. Unlike a prolific neighbour the letters are rarely published but sometimes they are. The worst strike rate is on matters to do with Gaza and the Palestinian genocide.
But here a couple from this year a couple of which have been published. The first in The Age; the second in The Economist and the third was sent to the Weekend FT with no results.
What do Finland, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden have in common?
Well, there are many answers to that. First, they rank from first to fourth in the annual UN-Backed world-happiness-report-2025.pdf
Of course, they all get very cold but seem to get joy from winter activities. Second, they have very enlightened policies on Indigenous people and Sami and other groups wander across borders. The education systems are robust and Finland has probably the best musical education for children in the world.
The blog is taking a break for a while. Back on deck next month.