Inauguration Day for the new President in 2025 will mark the 90^th anniversary of the publication of Sinclair Lewis’ It Can’t Happen Here.

This year’s election campaign also coincides with the publication of James Shapiro’s book, The Playbook, which describes the Roosevelt progressive New Deal Federal Works Progress Administration, in particular the Federal Theatre Project; and, the formation of the House Un-American Activities Committee which focussed on the alleged threat of Communism while downplaying the threat of Nazi Germany. The Committee went on until 1975 and is best known today for the 1950s McCarthy era hearings.

That campaign got upended when McCarthy turned his attention to the US military and a witness, Joseph N. Welch the chief counsel for the United States Army replied to his accusations with the words: “Have you no sense of decency Sir? The quote was directed at Senator Joseph McCarthy’s leading a campaign to root out alleged communists in the US government and in response to McCarthy’s continued attacks on a young lawyer who worked for Welch.

It was the beginning of the end for McCarthy and the beginning of a bit of courage for elements of the US media.  Sadly, no-one was around to do the same to Martin Dies, the inaugural chair of the Committee, who pioneered the “a new political playbook based on sensationalism, incrimination and fear – a playbook that has proved instrumental in our current culture wars” Shapiro said.

Shapiro’s book also recounts the populist campaign of Huey Long and the anti-communism crusader and Fascist Father Charles Coughlin. Both arguably predecessors of Donald Trump.

It Can’t Happen Here is based on the alternative reality of Roosevelt being edged out for renomination as President by Senator Berzelius ‘Buzz’ Windrip – a character loosely on Long. It’s not Lewis’ best novel but it is probably – despite being hastily written – his most powerful.

With the support of Bishop Prang (a character based on Coughlin) Windrip defeats his Republican opponent and then proceeds to ban Blacks and Jews from voting; forces women out of workplaces; stripping Congress of its authority; arresting Supreme Court Justices (they were liberal in the Roosevelt era and a modern day US dictator would no doubt be safe from current Supreme Court threats to their power); empowers a loyal paramilitary force; and, herds deemed enemies into concentration camps). Does this remind you of any contemporary politicians?

Shapiro writes that most Americans go along with it out of passivity, or because they felt that while Windrip “has got a few faults he’s on the sides of the plain people.”

Eventually Windrip is deposed by his Secretary of State who is then overthrown by the military led by a General Haik who aims to conscript forces to invade Mexico. In an era of dictators such as Hitler and Stalin that would have all sounded more realistic than today.

But perhaps in the Donald Trump era such scenarios are not totally implausible and indeed Trump is making campaign threats very similar to those of Coughlin, Long and Windrip.

Retired Gen. Mark A. Milley (formerly Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) has warned that Trump is “fascist to the core” and “the most dangerous person to this country” in alarm at the prospect of the Republican nominee’s election to another term, according to a new book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward.

Trump’s continued refusal to accept any election result other than a victory for him; the fact that guns outnumber people in the US; that the US is full of crazed individuals; and, the precedent of January 6 makes it just possible to believe.

Shapiro has written a number of important books including Shakespeare in a Divided America which focusses on Trumpist opposition to the annual Shakespeare in Central Park performances, and which became a battleground for freedom of speech; and the long campaign to rid the Oberammergau performance of anti-Semitism. Hopefully this latest one is not too prescient.