“HISPANICS LOVE TRUMP” Donald Trump said in 2024.  He was – for once – not boasting as he had won 48% of the Latino vote – more than any previous Republican presidential candidate had.

There was much analysis among pundits of the significance of this, and it was claimed to be a dramatic realignment of US politics as discussed in the last blog post.

Since then there has been a massive – and understandable – change in Hispanic attitudes to Trump and Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics has collapsed to 22%.

But now G. F. Elliot Morris has identified something significant which does much to explain Trump’s current problems.

Morris argues that “Trump won with a borrowed coalition and Republicans are on borrowed time.”

He points to the 2024 election where Trump won Wisconsin by about 29,000 votes and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia by just 2%.

But in March 2026 Data for Progress found that 8% of 2024 Trump voters are saying they would vote for the Democrat candidate in midterm elections. “That level of defection could be catastrophic, making a blue wave on steroids. An 8 point defection rate would turn Trump’s 1.4 margin of victory in 2024 into a 7 point loss, “Morris said.

According to pooled surveys from May 2025 to February 2026 about one in six Trump voters now disapprove of his performance as President – the groups he gained most in 2024.

Currently among self-described Trump voters 83.5% currently approve of his job performance while 15.3% disapprove.

Morris points out that this seems low but if he lost 15% of his voters he would have won just 42% of the vote.

Currently his vote share among Trump voters is well down among those aged 45-64; those earning $50k to $100k; Hispanic, 18-29, and with the biggest shift – 33% among previous Black voters.

In 2024 lower income earners swung 15% to Trump. Now the poorer the Trump voter the more likely they have swung against him.

AP Votecast found that among Trump voters aged 18 to 29 22% now disapprove of how he’s handling the Presidency.

Morris says: “If our theory is that these voters came to Trump on vibes and because of grocery prices, not on conservative identity, then it makes sense they would flip against Trump when he didn’t deliver on his promises.”

“Like the data for race, the age breakdown shows the people who swung hardest to Trump are souring the fastest, while those who were already on board in 2024 haven’t really budged,” Morris said.

Morris also highlighted that adults who cite the economy or prices as their top concern disapprove of Trump’s job performance by a 25 point margin – 61% disapprove compared with 36% approving.

One of Trump’s central policies – tariffs – is also well underwater. In a Harris poll in February 2026 for The Guardian half of Americans didn’t think tariffs had brought back manufacturing jobs and 77% of Democrats, 67% of Independents and 64% of Republicans think overall prices for goods are much or somewhat higher because of tariffs.

The majority of all voters (72%) believe Trump’s tariffs have had a negative effect and 67% said tariffs weren’t the right solution to improving the economy.

Meanwhile the Iran War is continuing and Trump’s attention is turning to yet another war – this time with Cuba. Whether he will try a rerun of his Venezuela strategy or invade is up in the air.

One thing is certain though – it’s not going to bring him much public support except in pockets of Florida.

Meanwhile, Trump is showing the same approach to commemoration as he did at Arlington Cemetery during the last campaign – staff pushing away a Cemetery staffer who tried to point out that political campaigning was not allowed in the memorial.

Now Trump has matched that effort by deciding to play golf while the Gulf War was continuing.  Arguably his absence might have been a good thing but it’s hardly a good look for a wartime leader,

But the New York Times found something worse – the draft dodging Trump – sent out a fundraising email through the Never Surender group seeking donations for President Trump for donors who want access to “private national security briefings from him”.

The fund raiser email featured an official photograph of Trump saluting as coffins holding six Army Reservists killed by an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait were unloaded from a plane.

With his usual class Trump was wearing his white campaign cap.