Once upon a time, a long time ago, in America Democrats had a lock on the Texas Senate seats and the state.

Robert A. Caro’s brilliant and monumental biography of LBJ showed how a combination of factors – from strategic use of funding opportunities created by the New Deal to some pork barrelling and to outright corruption kept the State on the Democrat lists.

LBJ was also instrumental in getting civil rights legislation passed even, as he confessed, at the cost of losing the South.

No longer is that the conventional wisdom.

Yet once more there are suggestions that Texas could swing to the Democrats. The last time there was heavy speculation about Texas and the Senate was when Democrat Beto O’Rourke was standing against Ted Cruz and lost narrowly.

Now The Economist has analysed likely outcomes in the Senate at the mid-terms. It assumes the Democrats will keep Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Minnesota.

Maine, Ohio and Iowa are uncertain.  Florida, Alaska and Nebraska are likely Republican wins with Texas ranked as uncertain.

The Texas election is between Democrat James Talarico and Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton after Trump mobilised MAGA against Paxton’s opponent in the Republican candidate election

Elliott Morris has run the Texas numbers and finds that Democrats need to flip about one in 15 Republican voters to win with help from higher turnout and independents.

He estimates, combining 2020 and 2024 data, that the party breakdown in Texas is 42% Democrat, 48% Republicans and 11% independent.

He also suggests that party ID is moving against Republicans with Gallup’s research suggesting the split has gone from Republicans plus one to Democrats plus five in 2025.

Morris also suggest that the President’s party voters typically fall off in midterms and enthusiasm among the out-party surges.

“Even if Talarico goes 50-50 with independents he could win with a favourable turnout environment or a national swing,” he said.

Another factor is that Paxton has a scandal-ridden stint as Texas Attorney General which might have been why Trump favoured him over his opponent when Republicans voted on who their candidate should be.

Non-Americans may also have a misleading impression of Texas. It is no longer just a State full of big hats, big spreads and good old boys. Austin, the State capital, for instance is a major centre for IT and has a significant cultural infrastructure.

,,,,and while Texas is a rich state, voters there are still being hit by the impacts of Trump’s policies as are other Americans. G. Elliott Morris research has found that 69% of Americans say they decided not make purchases in the past month because of the cost. Texas is not immune.

49% say groceries are contributing ‘a great deal’ of household financial stress while 33% say they have experienced some stress. Housing costs, utilities, health care and health insurance, housing and emergency or retirement savings are being hit.

Whose to blame? According to Donald Trump it’s Joe Biden. Yet 41% of Americans say Trump and his administration are most responsible for cost-of-living problems – far more than blame Biden (16%). 63% of Americans say the economy is in poor condition.

Morris also points to research from a variety of pollsters. Quinnipaic has Trump’s economy approval at 33%, Fox News had an economy disapproval at 71% and New York Times/Sienna; 64% disapproval.

In March 2025 voters gave Biden slightly more blame for inflation than Trump but by April 2026 54% blamed Trump.

Paul Krugman in his regular blog said about all this: “let’s look at it rationally (I know rationality has a well-known liberal bias). The 19% of Americans who support MAGA, many of whom literally believe Trump was sent by God say the economy is good. The other 81% of Americans say that it’s very bad. Which group is more likely to have economic perceptions that are warped by politics?”

Krugman also cited research which showed that 63% of adults thought the economy was getting worse; 87% of Democrats said it was worse; 65% of non-MAGA Republicans thought the economy was getting worse; while only MAGA Republicans (50%) said it was getting better.

Meanwhile Americans are cottoning on to the fact that Trump is demented and are losing confidence in Trump’s mental fitness for the job. According to the Pew Research Center 61% of adults (including 30% of Republicans) say Trump has become erratic with age, and only 45% call him mentally sharp enough for the job (down from 54% pre-2024), and just 32% are extremely or very confident in his mental fitness. Among independents, the “mentally sharp” percentage has cratered from 53% to 36%.