While some commentators – and Congress members – are speculating on whether to invoke the 25^th amendment or not the voting public has decided already – Trump has to go.

G. Elliott Morris has produced new estimates which indicate that where Trump’s approval rating is below 50% among registered voters in 135 Republican held Congressional seats – 104 in the House and 31 in the Senate.

Morris analysis finds that an Arizona House seat in which the incumbent won by 1% Trump’s approval rating is just 38.1%. Sub 40% Trump support also applies to GOP seats in New York, and California.

Morris’ analysis said: “In total, there are 16 House seats and 2 Senate seats currently controlled by Republicans, where Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is below 42.5% (net rating below -15) and where Trump won by less than 10 points in 2024.”

He also pointed out that winning 16 seats was more than enough for Democrats to take back control of the House majority in November

“The backlash also extends to some seemingly safe red seats which now disapprove of Trump overall Morris said.

“Texas’s 21st District — a seat Trump won by 24 points and that is currently held by Chip Roy — is at 46.9% Trump approval. Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd, also Trump then +24, is now at 49.9%. Elise Stefanik in New York’s 21st, Trump was+21 but is now at 46.7%. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 4th, Trump was +18,  and is now at 49.0%. These are deep-red seats where Trump is now underwater,” Morris concludes.

In the Senate – which would be pivotal in any impeachment actions – there are almost a dozen Republican held seats where Trump is underwater.

Susan Collins – more pink than deep red and a rare moderate Republican – is facing an election in which Trump’s approval is just 41.3%.

Other current GOP held Senate seats theoretically under threat are Texas, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Arguably some Senators such as Thom Tillis and Ted Cruz would have records and resources which should protect them.

Tillis, of course, was unlikely to win MAGA support given his recent comments and has announced he won’t stand again at the 2026 election.is criticisms attract moderate Republicans.

Nevertheless, both Texas seats represent anti-Trump electorates with Trump’s approval at 44.1%. Morris compared this with2006 when George W. Bush had a 38% approval as the Iraq War dragged on.

The Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats as the war began a quagmire.

In 2018 Trump approval was at about 41% and the Republicans lost 40 seats.

It could also be worse than the current Morris scenarios with Trump’s position worse than it was in 2018.

Morris says: “So, the question Republicans politicians should be asking themselves in the light of these data is: Do you want to win re-election, or do you want to keep backing your party leader who is threatening to ‘end civilisation’ in an unpopular, unsuccessful, unnecessary overseas war? Because these data suggest you can’t do both.”